October Is a Decision Window, Not a Confirmed Lumber-Duty Cut

As of September 20, 2026, no reduction in U.S. duties on Canadian softwood lumber is confirmed for October 2026. Those totals are provisional and not in effect. Buyers should continue using the applicable current cash-deposit requirements and account separately for the reported 10% Section 232 tariff until final U.S. government notices and Commerce instructions establish new rates and effective dates (Global Affairs Canada’s softwood-lumber update).

The short answer: no October reduction is confirmed

Canadian government status pages have described October as the expected window for the final determination in the seventh administrative review, or AR7. That is not the same as a guaranteed rate reduction, a legally fixed effective date, or a dependable deadline for buying lumber.

The June 30 figures do not change current collection requirements and may change before Commerce issues its final results. The October timing is also an expectation reported in Canadian government summaries, not an exact effective date established by a final U.S. notice.

Commerce may revise its calculations, and the proceeding’s timetable can be extended. Its April countervailing-duty notice set an approximate 120-day schedule for final results while expressly allowing an extension (Federal Register preliminary CVD review notice).

For purchasing purposes, October is therefore a decision window, not a confirmed day on which duties become lower. Do not make it a firm order deadline based on provisional figures.

Current rates versus the provisional AR7 figures

Antidumping and countervailing duties are administered under separate orders and have separate deposit rates. The “combined” percentages below are reported AD-plus-CVD sums used for comparison; they are not a single standalone legal rate.

Rate stages and reported sums: Province of British Columbia softwood-lumber trade-dispute table. The page says the amended AR6 figures took effect September 11, 2025, while the AR7 figures may change and do not affect current duties or deposits.

For the categories with both figures available, the comparison points toward a possible decrease. It does not establish what Commerce will publish as the final AD or CVD rate.

“All Others” is a proceeding category, not a universal percentage for every Canadian mill, exporter, shipment, or wood product.

Why April and June reports showed different numbers

The apparent conflict between April’s widely reported 24.83% figure and June’s 25.18% All Others figure reflects different calculation stages:

• April 14: Commerce published preliminary results covering the 2024 review period. The CVD notice listed preliminary subsidy rates of 11.70% for Resolute, 15.93% for West Fraser, and 14.17% for 215 non-selected companies.
• April reporting: NAHB added the 10.66% preliminary antidumping margin to the 14.17% preliminary countervailing rate and reported a 24.83% combined figure. It presented that number as a preliminary reduction from 35.16%, not as a rate already in force (NAHB’s preliminary-rate report).
• June 30: Commerce completed post-preliminary CVD calculations. When paired with the April preliminary AD margins, those later CVD figures produced reported sums of 31.37% for Canfor, 20.92% for West Fraser, 25.49% for Resolute, and 25.18% for All Others.
• Expected next step: Commerce issues final AR7 results. Canadian government updates have identified October as the expected window, but that does not guarantee either the timing or a reduction.

It also did not replace the deposit requirements currently being collected. That is why 24.83% should not be treated as either the current rate or the final AR7 rate.

What must happen before importers pay a new rate

Commerce calculates antidumping and countervailing rates, while U.S. Customs and Border Protection collects the required deposits. Preliminary and post-preliminary calculations do not, by themselves, tell importers to begin depositing at a new AR7 percentage.

Cash-deposit rates generally change after Commerce publishes final review determinations and issues the applicable case instructions. A cash deposit paid at entry is an estimate rather than necessarily the importer’s final duty liability. Under the retrospective U.S. AD/CVD system, the final amount can increase, decrease, or remain unchanged after administrative review.

Product coverage must also be checked against the written scope of the orders. Tariff-classification numbers can help identify merchandise, but CBP says the written scope controls whether a product is covered.

A lower AR7 rate would not remove every lumber tariff

AR7 concerns the antidumping and countervailing-duty orders on covered Canadian softwood lumber. It does not, by itself, remove every trade measure that may apply.

The Canadian government update cited above reports that a separate 10% Section 232 tariff remains. Because the supporting status statement comes from a Canadian government summary rather than controlling U.S. customs instructions, buyers should confirm the current Section 232 rate, product coverage, exclusions, and entry treatment before calculating an actual shipment.

CUSMA compliance should not be assumed to remove lumber-specific trade measures. Reporting on the agreement distinguishes its exemption from blanket tariffs from separate sector-specific treatment, including softwood lumber (Canadian Press report on CUSMA exemptions and sectoral tariffs). Current U.S. instructions still need to be checked for the shipment at issue.

What material buyers should check before changing an order

Do not delay, accelerate, or reprice an order solely because duties are assumed to fall in October. Verify the documents and shipment details first:

1. Find the final Federal Register notices. Look for final AR7 results for both the antidumping and countervailing-duty reviews, not an April preliminary notice or a June summary.
2. Confirm publication and effective dates. The date Commerce announces a decision may not be interchangeable with the date a revised deposit requirement applies.
3. Identify the producer and exporter. A quote involving Canfor should not use West Fraser’s provisional percentage. A shipment from an exporter not shown in a summary table should not automatically be assigned a rate without checking the final case instructions.
4. Read the written product scope. Confirm that the exact product is covered instead of relying solely on a general description or classification code.
5. Account for Section 232 separately. Keep it on its own line in the landed-cost worksheet unless current official treatment establishes otherwise.

Even a confirmed reduction at the border would not guarantee an equal or immediate drop in a distributor, lumberyard, or home-center quote. Existing inventory may reflect earlier costs, while contracts, freight, exchange rates, available supply, and demand can also affect the price offered to a buyer. A percentage-point reduction in deposits should not be converted directly into an assumed retail discount.

For publication monitoring, a status box should be changed only after final primary U.S. government documents establish the producer-specific rates and applicable effective dates. Until then, the supported answer remains conditional: the provisional figures indicate potentially lower AD-plus-CVD sums for several producer categories, but October is only an expected decision window. Buyers should continue using applicable current requirements and verify separate Section 232 treatment before revising landed-cost or store-price assumptions.